Ruminations on a Coalition Crackup

The NYTimes informs us that President Obama apparently spoke through Martin Indyk to Nahum Barnea in the now-infamous Yediot Ahronoth piece that thrashed PM Bibi Netanyahu's government and singled out the settlement movement - the raison d'être of the national religious revisionist Zionist Israeli right wing that now characterizes the rank and file of Likud, Yisrael Beitenu, and Jewish Home - as the primary reason for the peace talks breaking down.  This apparently ignored Mahmoud Abbas' refusal to speak straight to President Obama about the rumored Kerry Framework, despite Bibi's acceptance with reservations.  The real takeaway from this turning point is this: the Likud-YB coalition is about to fall into tatters. To wit:

- Tzipi Livni looked like a rock star in that piece.  It should come as no surprise that she's taking the peace talk initiative and meeting with Abbas to restart talks.  The once likely PM has begun her road back to the top spot.
- Netanyahu is so frayed that he's focusing on a Jewish Nation State Basic Law and codifying Torah/Talmud as the basis and inspiration of Israeli Law.  I wonder how Ben-Gurion would have felt about that?
- The Hamas-Fateh unity deal continues to march forward.  From this, Abbas' successor shall come, but perhaps not before the dissolution of the PA in an attempt to burn the Israelis.  We'll come back to this.
- Germany, with US backing, has suspended a gunboat deal with Israel.  Will this finally snap the Coalition's back?
- Would Yair Lapid enter a coalition with Shas?  If he would, then Livni's Hatnuah, Herzog's Labour, Gal-On's Meretz and Lapid's Yesh Atid could form a ruling coalition.

There's a parallel here and I want to put it down: Israel's politics right now, in a very broad way, look like the US of the mid/late 00's.  The old Reagan coalition of conservative working class Democrats, Evangelicals, fp hawks, economic libertarians was fraying and the burgeoning Obama coalition was being born.

In Israel, something similar is happening.  The national-religious movement is becoming more insular and subject to "no true Scotsman" tests.  The secular Zionist middle class that seeks to preserve the basic Zionist dream and improve living standards has broken apart from that (save for the 5 major settlements.)  These people, the Livni/Lapid/Shavit/Oren-bloc, seek to "unburden" themselves of the Occupation and be done with it.

Unilateralism will emerge as the Israeli buzzword.  The self-reliant backbone of Zionism is growing stronger and while Lebanon and Gaza were botched withdrawals, there is an obvious course of conduct:

- Abbas will saber rattle about PA dissolution, the increased settlement activity will make Judea and Samaria more intertwined.  The median Israeli will want out of this predicament.
- A new, pro-2 state (note: not pro-peace) Coalition will emerge based on completion of the security fence, withdrawal from beyond it, and a Marshall Plan of aid to the new West Bank Palestinian government.
- Annexation of the major settlement blocs and fortification of the fence will create a potential Gaza situation, but more likely a propped up PA (perhaps briefly dissolved and reconstituted as more blatantly Fayyadist) will re-emerge and massive state building will ensue.
- Israel and Palestine will sign an accord recognizing this state of affairs and dual sovereignty.  The Palestinians may take their cases to court, but the Right of Return will never happen (there may be national compensation.)
- Israeli entry to NATO and I/P both joining the EU.

This platform, along with massive nation-building through the Negev, will carry the day and set the score for Consolidationist Zionism.  Finishing the victories of the movement and establishing a durable, if imperfect peace not unlike South Korea's.