The Urban Myth of Party Shifts

I was talking to my co-author on Gchat, specifically about his hilariously ridiculously child-like optimism about a left/libertarian shift in the entire Republican platform.  He bases this idea mostly on Paul Ryan's proposals, Rand Paul's "popularity", and the overall conservative "intelligentsia" like Ross or others of the "respectable" crowd.  I'll let him go into the details of where he thinks the party is headed in his own post but trust me, it's a laundry list.  Of stupid.

First of all, the conservative intelligentsia has just about zero traction inside the party.  I cannot think of a more perfect example of inside-the-beltway isolation than the "autopsy" Priebus commissioned after Romney's re-enactment/slow mo version of the Hindenburg in 2012.  That was a report commissioned by the intelligentsia for the masses/candidates.  It has been universally ignored/mocked/outright denied by the entirely rest of the party to the point that he has had to disown his own baby.  And it was fairly watered-down advice. This was the bare-minimum that the party intelligentsia thought  was actually feasible!  "We don't need to change on SSM, just don't openly mock or  insult LGBT Americans and let's keep a little quiet on this for a while."  Good lord, fellas, good lord.  Apparently Arizona/Alabama/Mississippi/Georgia/Missouri/Indiana/Kansas/et. al. didn't get the memo.       

Second, neither party does tidal shifts.  Republicans didn't after 2010.  They didn't after 2012.  We didn't after 2004.  And contrary to popular belief, the Democrats didn't in 1992.  As simple proof, I would ask anyone to look at the party platforms from the 80s to now and tell me where the big differences are in philosophy or substance are.  Being perfectly honest, if they have changed at all, it has been more conservative/more liberal.  

I think this urban myth about the shifting party comes from the optics of one big concession, which is usually in the form of a switcheroo.  Clinton did Welfare reform, mostly to avoid deeper cuts or complete nixing.  Bush replaced Rumsfeld, in order to continue the wars.  McCain came out in support of woman's equality......by nominating Sarah Palin.  I could list others on all three of those moments in time but I think you get the picture.  The parties only shift so far and generally it's by semantics rather than position.  

However, when it does shift on a position, it's almost always to the detriment of all other positions.  Bush gave the right a marriage amendment position and in return they shut up about abortion/vouchers/school prayer.  Obama gave the left DADT repeal and a SSM position and they have generally shut up about the environment/abortion/surveillance/Afghanistan.  The party base gets satisifed and the intelligentsia gets satisfied at the same time.  They can all walk away saying "we're moved the party."  The only problem is they don't realize that this has blunted any momentum left or right.  

So, my prediction, the Republican party will come out in support of SSM and/or immigration reform in the intermediate future (I heavily lean towards being 2 or 3 cycles away from any actual change in the party).  And that's it.  They will be able to tell themselves that they have "evolved" or whatever, just like Clinton convinced them that the Democratic Party had "evolved" or whatever, and just keep on turning.  

I know this seems to say that both parties are equal in this sort of dance but I think the opposite is about to happen.  The formerly fringe ideas of the Democratic party (immigration reform, SSM, pot reform) are going to continue to get popular until they are passed.  Then the Republican party will simply grow around those ideas and accept this new America.  I do not however think that the party will do so en masse and of their own volition now or anytime in the future.  The elderly right now hate these ideas and they pretty much control the primaries.  The baby boomers will be the elderly when our generation is in control and they merely loathe the ideas.  A step up but not nearly high enough for the Republicans to see the new America before it's right on top of them.