Been a little while. Let's get back into it.
Crimea
Putin has made no new moves in Eastern Ukraine. The G-8 is now officially the G-7. Crimea is firmly in Putin's hands but President Obama has started to lay the rhetorical groundwork for a third round of sanctions based on the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. The Kremlin's relative silence over the past week means two things to me. (1) Russia is trying to see how far the US/EU is willing to push penalties before officially responding, since it is always easier to start staunching the PR wound after the blows have stopped. (2) Russia is quietly negotiating with the West to reverse the current sanctions and, more importantly, stop any future sanctions before they get proposed.
On the first count, I think Russia/Putin is just now being forced to weigh the long-term consequences of his recent purchase. Aside from the short to moderate term economic depression, what he really has to worry about are the coming government subsidies/investments in alternate energy and alternate market that will start popping up in the US/EU. Obviously he cares about one more than the other but they tend to spiral together. On the second count, this is anyone's guess. If the first true, then I would hope that means the second is true.
(Update: the phone call between Obama and Putin has been been much talked about. Strange PR move from the Kremlin. I think it is a genuine concession that Russia wants to at least appear to be looking for diplomatic solution. I know everyone wants to talk about the troops on the border as a guarantee that Russia wants to invade but, take it from me, a country putting large numbers of troops on the border can often just be for show. Trust me, I was one of 3,000 soldiers staged in Kuwait purely to send a message to the Middle East. Sometimes they're just there to check a block.)
(Update: the phone call between Obama and Putin has been been much talked about. Strange PR move from the Kremlin. I think it is a genuine concession that Russia wants to at least appear to be looking for diplomatic solution. I know everyone wants to talk about the troops on the border as a guarantee that Russia wants to invade but, take it from me, a country putting large numbers of troops on the border can often just be for show. Trust me, I was one of 3,000 soldiers staged in Kuwait purely to send a message to the Middle East. Sometimes they're just there to check a block.)
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